Ductless HVAC market seen topping $144B by 2030

The ductless heating and cooling systems market is projected to surpass $144 billion by 2030, driven by retrofits, energy-efficiency upgrades and smart-home adoption. North America is expected to stay the largest regional market, while Daikin held the top global share in 2025.

Why it matters: - Ductless systems are gaining share as building owners look for lower-cost, more flexible climate control without major ductwork changes. - The market's growth ties directly to energy efficiency, renovation activity and the spread of connected home technology. - The segment is becoming more important across residential, commercial and industrial HVAC demand.

What happened: - The Business Research Company said the global ductless heating and cooling systems market is on track to exceed $144 billion by 2030. - The market is forecast to grow at a 9% compound annual rate through 2030. - Daikin Industries Ltd. was the leading player in 2025 with a 2% global share. - North America is projected to remain the largest regional market, reaching $49 billion by 2030 from $36 billion in 2025. - The United States is forecast to be the largest national market by 2030 at $40 billion, up from $30 billion in 2025.

The details: - The ductless market sits inside the larger plumbing, heating and air-conditioning contractors market, which is forecast to reach about $2,267 billion by 2030. - The broader construction industry is projected at $21,691 billion by 2030. - Cooling only split systems are expected to be the biggest product type in 2030, at 39% of the market and $56 billion in value. - The market is also segmented into heat pumps, chilled water systems and window air conditioners. - Applications include residential, commercial and industrial use. - End users range from single-family homes and apartments to offices, retail, hospitality, healthcare and educational sites. - The top 10 companies accounted for 8% of total revenue in 2025, underscoring a fragmented market. - Daikin, Mitsubishi Electric, Gree Electric Appliances, Midea, Carrier, Johnson Controls, Trane, Panasonic, Samsung and Hitachi were listed among the leading companies. - A May 2024 example cited in the report was Quilt's ductless heat pump system, which included smart features, customizable indoor units, millimeter-wave radar sensors and smartphone connectivity.

Between the lines: - Retrofitting is a major growth engine because ductless systems can avoid expensive ductwork and structural changes. - Energy-efficiency rules and consumer demand are pushing older HVAC equipment out in favor of inverter-driven systems. - Smart-home integration is turning ductless units into connected devices, not just appliances, which may help adoption in newer and renovated homes. - The competitive landscape favors companies that can pair efficiency, smart controls and broad distribution.

What's next: - The report expects retrofitting and renovation activity to add about 2.4% annual growth. - Demand for energy-efficient climate control is expected to add about 2.2% annual growth. - Smart-home integration is projected to contribute about 2.0% annual growth. - The largest opportunities are expected in cooling only split systems, heat pumps, chilled water systems and window air conditioners, which together could add more than $51 billion by 2030. - Companies are expected to keep investing in inverter technology, smart HVAC features, AI-powered monitoring and predictive maintenance.

The bottom line: - Ductless HVAC is moving from a niche retrofit choice to a mainstream growth category as efficiency, sustainability and connected controls reshape building climate systems. - More information is available in the company's announcement.